A paper exploring the effect of recalibrating the FEH13 rainfall depth-duration-frequency model on rainfall return period estimates has been published in the Journal of Flood Risk Management (https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12703). The research used the county of Cumbria as a case study to explore how recent record-breaking rainfall events have changed the perception of flood risk for local communities. FEH13 was recalibrated for the study region using rain gauge records up to 2016, including the extreme events experienced in November 2009 and December 2015. The case study demonstrates the importance of maximising the length of record for calibration data in terms of the perception of risk, and shows how it is difficult to separate apparent trend from natural variability.

Following on from this case study, UKCEH is working on a full recalibration of FEH13 throughout the UK. The updated model will be made available via the FEH Web Service in due course.

Further background information on FEH13 is available here.